The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise

Why Most Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

Audiobook CD - 2012
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The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how to distinguish true signals from hype.
Publisher: New York : Penguin Audio ; Prince Frederick, MD : Distributed by Recorded Books, p2012
Edition: Unabridged
ISBN: 9781470338718
1470338718
Branch Call Number: 519.542 SILVER CD
Characteristics: 13 sound discs (15 hr., 30 min.) : digital ; 4 3/4 in

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LibraryUser53
May 08, 2014

Not as interesting or informative as I had hoped. Much of the material is just a re-hash of what most who follow current events, news, and politics already know. There's some good bits here and there --- Bayesian vs. Determinism philosophies for instance; and how one's view of that dichotomy affects the science of forecasting. But even that seems somewhat glossed over. The most interesting segment is Silver's personal narrative about his foray into the world of high stakes poker. On the upside, while the book doesn't produce any "a-ha" moments, for the most part it provides an interesting listen about the science of probabilistic forecasting. On the downside, Silver seems to be trying to cover too much material, which leaves the listener with mostly thread-bare coverage of the topics. Also, the audio reader for this CD set seems inexperienced and is at times difficult to understand. All in all, at best, modestly recommended.

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